The Irano-Israeli rivalry in Syria:

a new factor of instability?

Abstract

The Syrian civil war has been a fertile land for third parties’ interventions; it has been the theatre of competition between both regional and extra-regional States, among them, Iran, Israel and Russia. In February 2018, Israel started attacking Iranian positions in Syria, and in July, Russia tried to intervene to reduce tensions. From the study of the events that took place from February 2018 to January 2019, this article analyses whether the Irano-Israeli rivalry in the Syrian theatre constitutes, or might constitute in the immediate future, a factor of instability for Syria through a spill over effect. Taking advantage of Goertz and Diehl (2003)’s concept of rivalry, this article adopts the prospect theory applied to International Relations, as developed by Levy (2003), to understand the behaviour of the actors involved, and the preponderance of power perspective to answer the main question and determine the effects of the rivalry on the stability.