Confucius’ Trap?

The roots of China’s Strategy

Abstract

The rise of the People’s Republic of China has spurred research into whether this rising power will end up colliding with the United States, following a pattern that Graham Allison has called Thucydides’ Trap. However, some of these studies depart from the idea that the State is a unified actor and that conflict is inherent to the international system. In other words, China will behave in the same manner as all western powers on the international stage. This article will sustain that it is impossible to analyse and/or infer the potential conduct of the People’s Republic of China without grasping its over 2000-year’s cultural heritage. The legacy of Confucianism enjoyed a rebirth in the People’s Republic of China since the 1990s. In this sense, the theoretical tool of constructivism is used to study that legacy and its impact on Chinese strategic thinking, which is also linked to Chinese traditions and can be observed in the dynamics of Wéiqí: the weakening of the adversary in order to obtain greater territorial control. To that effect, we observe how investment, trade and cultural penetration by China into the world has evolved in the last few years.